More on the Selzer poll: https://bsky.app/profile/proptermalone.bsky.social/post/3la22fb4tpc2y So if you're polling by either looking at whether individuals voted last time or weighting to your … (View Post)

It's not up to him. The US system is very experienced in dealing with frivolously contested elections, it doesn't assume the loser will be gracious. What it's not set up for is the inc… (View Post)

Here's the interview with Ann Selzer I mentioned that I posted on the previous thread. She talks about her method early on then the rest is talking about the prospects for GOP primaries that hav… (View Post)

OK so there are 4 possibilities: 1) Selzer is wrong, everyone else is right, Iowa isn't in play so don't commit resources 2) Selzer is wrong, everyone else is wrong, go with your priors whi… (View Post)

My favourite twist for this series would be that Harris puts in a reasonable-sized win and Trump... graciously concedes. I mean, he's being sentenced for election crimes about 2 weeks after the … (View Post)