For comparison (different pollster but) Obama was about 12 points underwater in Aug-Oct of 2011 despite getting Osama Bin Laden just a few months earlier, then he snapped back to parity at the end of… (View Post)

Not obvious that this would get Trump off the hook even if it checked out. (View Post)

I reckon the one everyone's sleeping on is Ivanka Trump for the GOP nomination. If Trump gets disqualified (17% chance per Polymarket) and still gets the most delegates (likely) he's not going go off… (View Post)

This is a good example of the difficulty of pandering to the anti-immigration people. The Sun shows some pictures of asylum seekers who look old (either because they were really lying about their age… (View Post)

The assumption here is that if you say you're a child but the Home Office classify you as an adult you were "caught" and you're actually an adult. The charities that are working with them s… (View Post)