TBF he wasn't the only person who didn't realize the invasion would fail the way it did. A lot of well-informed people seem to have assumed the Ukrainian government would either collapse li… (View Post)

Ukrainians who don't want to live under Russian occupation mostly move to the uninvaded parts of Ukraine. Others get forcibly transported to some random bit of Russia, and Russians moved into th… (View Post)

There's some more on it here, they have Flynn down as an Effective Altruism luminary, and SBF is an Effective Altruism enthusiast: https://www.vox.com/23066877/carrick-flynn-effective-altruism-s… (View Post)

2023 is a simple electoral calculation: If you think he's going to save your job you keep him, if you think he's going to lose it you give him the boot. This doesn't work well in mid-t… (View Post)

Yup, and whether Trump is running or not also affects the potency of the age issue: Some voters could definitely be persuaded that you shouldn't elect someone who's 81, but that's not … (View Post)