Yup, and whether Trump is running or not also affects the potency of the age issue: Some voters could definitely be persuaded that you shouldn't elect someone who's 81, but that's not … (View Post)

It depends whether we reckon presidential incumbency effects are real but I think there are quite a few candidates who would be stronger than Biden in his current state, which may yet deteriorate: Gr… (View Post)

What (America) *should* have isn't relevant. They should have gun control, reasonably-priced medical care and Tokyo-style planning regulations but they don't. All the old folks should retir… (View Post)

There are a lot of governors (and one not-yet-governor, Stacy Abrams) who could plausibly run, but they kind of make up a long tail of individually improbable winners, because you don't know if … (View Post)

30% is way too low. He spent his whole life trying to be president, why would he give it up? Especially when the likely replacement is Kamala who would probably lose and put the guy he beat back in. (View Post)