An armistice that stopped the fighting for decades was easier in Korea because: 1. Both sides had ended up pretty much where they started, neither was occupying substantial territory that had previou… (View Post)

On topic this is like half the public benefit of prediction markets: They give insiders with privileged access to information the incentive to turn it into public information. Privileged insiders sha… (View Post)

The other thing about this is: Say he decided not to run at this point. What's the story? He's incapable of running for president, but for the next 8 months he remains capable of *being* president? I… (View Post)

The tricky thing about it is that it could be inside information. Externally "somebody knows something" and "a couple of well-heeled punters have lost their minds" will look the s… (View Post)

I'm pretty sure it's MAGA crypto money. The Biden price is wrong in two ways. First, they think Biden is going to be replaced by Michelle Obama at the convention. They think Biden will be replaced be… (View Post)