Incumbency seems to be helpful, he's beaten Trump before, he seems to be able to reach ex-Trump-voting boomers in a way that no other Dem can, Trump is nearly as old as Biden, it's not at all clear t… (View Post)

It's August, there have been no debates, the voters aren't paying attention yet. One candidate has extremely high name recognition, and also they feel like he needs support. What the polling tells us… (View Post)

By lane, numbers-out-of-arse, not an offer to bet: Trump: 55% Trump-picked toady (Ivanka etc): 5% Trumpist non-Trump (Ramaswamy, DeSantis): 20% Anti-Trump (Christie, Pence): 10% Trump-neutral Other (… (View Post)

IANAL but if I've got this right the process is: a) Some random state official you've never heard of declines to put him on the ballot, then somebody sues them to require them to put him there, and t… (View Post)

I think the polls are probably overstating Trump, firstly because he's getting name recognition, and secondly because the voters want to show support for him and at this point there's no cost to doin… (View Post)