Is there any evidence that shy Trump voters were a thing in 2016? The national polls were pretty close, and IIUC the polling failure in the mid-west is generally blamed on screwing up the sampling/we… (View Post)

OT it turns out the suspicious results that the Organization of American States used to question the Bolivian election were an artifact of a sorting error in Stata. https://twitter.com/ceprdc/status/… (View Post)

On topic, there's all kinds of uncertainty and weirdness and the chance of Trump somehow turning it around isn't trivial, but it's also not 42%. The voters are very clear that they don… (View Post)

I think this is easily explained: Trump is delusional, and the rest of the GOP (congresspeople, senators and party officials) would be happy to get rid of him, although they can't say so for fea… (View Post)

Don't worry, the established practice for 2020 is to do something terrible, *but not the thing that you expect*. (View Post)