IDK, the dude is literally staring at a prediction saying there's a 25% chance. If he ever rolled a dice and got a 6 he must have been like "hmm, this dice seems to be broken, the laws of p… (View Post)

While we're doing random covid posts, a really nice simple suggestion in this paper: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-fluid-mechanics/article/effects-of-ventilation-on-the-indo… (View Post)

It's just an astonishing feat of obtuseness. How can you not learn? 1) October, 2016: See the models showing a 25% probability, write articles as if this means "basically impossible" 2… (View Post)

Aargh, American punditry is so terrible, they never learn. They are literally unable to perceive any probability below 25%. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/30/politics/2020-election-models-trump-odds… (View Post)

I don't really understand how it works but to be a "serious political journalist" in the US apparently requires you to be stunningly obtuse. I think it's because they have these k… (View Post)