The people behind Polymarket don't settle their own markets. They outsource this to a system called Uma. (In theory the people behind Polymarket can't steal from punters, because the stake is all man… (View Post)
A legitimate efficient-markets explanation for the polling / polymarket skew would be that somebody knows how to interpret early voting data. This is a really hard thing to do without a lot of local … (View Post)
The extra complication here is that it's led by Polymarket which will skew not only because somebody is dumping money on Trump and there's not enough non-manipulative money to correct, but also becau… (View Post)
He doesn't need to, there are various provisions related to national security etc that he can abuse. He can also unilaterally give wavers to companies that pay him, it's an incredible corruption oppo… (View Post)
I would say his underlying advantages are: 1) He's charismatic and genuinely funny 2) He sounds authentic. The magic ingredient is just to lie a lot and not care if you get caught out but it makes hi… (View Post)