2023 is a simple electoral calculation: If you think he's going to save your job you keep him, if you think he's going to lose it you give him the boot. This doesn't work well in mid-term because it'… (View Post)

Yup, and whether Trump is running or not also affects the potency of the age issue: Some voters could definitely be persuaded that you shouldn't elect someone who's 81, but that's not a great argumen… (View Post)

It depends whether we reckon presidential incumbency effects are real but I think there are quite a few candidates who would be stronger than Biden in his current state, which may yet deteriorate: Gr… (View Post)

What (America) *should* have isn't relevant. They should have gun control, reasonably-priced medical care and Tokyo-style planning regulations but they don't. All the old folks should retire, but the… (View Post)

There are a lot of governors (and one not-yet-governor, Stacy Abrams) who could plausibly run, but they kind of make up a long tail of individually improbable winners, because you don't know if they'… (View Post)