Interesting how he doesn't seem to have mentioned that in the interview he did *before* the election. Like I said before, prediction market behaviour is hard to read because to an external observer a… (View Post)

Should have done this earlier but we should maybe name the different types of result, we can do it based on who is trying to make it happen. The Khamenei: Clear Harris win The Netanyahu: Clear Trump … (View Post)

The other thing is that predictions about what the increased/decreased turnout means don't have a great track record. (View Post)

I think US population is increasing by about a million per year so that sounds like a small decrease. https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/united-states/population [edited several… (View Post)

This is why it's hard to extract signal from prediction markets: 1. Knowledgeable insiders and rich morons both exist 2. To an external observer they have similar behavior 3. If you're a knowledgeabl… (View Post)