I think US population is increasing by about a million per year so that sounds like a small decrease. https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/united-states/population [edited several… (View Post)

This is why it's hard to extract signal from prediction markets: 1. Knowledgeable insiders and rich morons both exist 2. To an external observer they have similar behavior 3. If you're a knowledgeabl… (View Post)

What if the universe has run out of entropy or something and all the things that are supposed to be one random thing or another are just coming out at 50/50. (View Post)

Technically yes but effectively he's predicting a tie. (View Post)

I would say just pick one at random but that may no longer be possible (View Post)