Paul Motty swing state guide: https://bsky.app/profile/paulmotty.bsky.social/post/3l4h54pbgcs2h (View Post)

People use the word "shy" in polling from when people didn't want to admit voting for John Major but I don't think it's what's going on here. Part of it seems to be just that Trump voters d… (View Post)

I'm making one on the grounds that making predictions that make you look stupid is how you learn, and it doesn't really matter what people here think of me. (View Post)

On topic I have absolutely no confidence about this but I'm going to say a solid Kamala Harris win. Let's call it all the Biden states plus NC, minus a coin flip for AZ and GA. I think the polling co… (View Post)

On topic this site seems to have two strands of opinion on this race. There's the mainstream opinion that it's 50/50 shot, and then there's a minority of contrarians who think we're all idiots for un… (View Post)