edmundintokyo

If the US is simultaneously backing out of Nato, the financial cost of letting Ukraine go sounds much worse, because now the EU needs an army to keep victorious Russia out of the rest of ex-Soviet Eu… (View Post)

The following tab (and lists) worked for me for a bit but the changes Elon made to the reply ordering basically killed it, because for me the value of Twitter was always the conversations and regardl… (View Post)

The people behind Polymarket don't settle their own markets. They outsource this to a system called Uma. (In theory the people behind Polymarket can't steal from punters, because the stake is all man… (View Post)

A legitimate efficient-markets explanation for the polling / polymarket skew would be that somebody knows how to interpret early voting data. This is a really hard thing to do without a lot of local … (View Post)

The extra complication here is that it's led by Polymarket which will skew not only because somebody is dumping money on Trump and there's not enough non-manipulative money to correct, but also becau… (View Post)