FPT Anecdotally I'm seen several ideologically right-wing people on the twitters who don't follow politics very closely and don't usually bet on it saying they want to bet / are bettin… (View Post)

This is a great market, lots of dumb money, including people who lucked into a win last time and now think they're smart. (View Post)

Is there any evidence that shy Trump voters were a thing in 2016? The national polls were pretty close, and IIUC the polling failure in the mid-west is generally blamed on screwing up the sampling/we… (View Post)

OT it turns out the suspicious results that the Organization of American States used to question the Bolivian election were an artifact of a sorting error in Stata. https://twitter.com/ceprdc/status/… (View Post)

On topic, there's all kinds of uncertainty and weirdness and the chance of Trump somehow turning it around isn't trivial, but it's also not 42%. The voters are very clear that they don… (View Post)