OK so there are 4 possibilities: 1) Selzer is wrong, everyone else is right, Iowa isn't in play so don't commit resources 2) Selzer is wrong, everyone else is wrong, go with your priors which say Iow… (View Post)

My favourite twist for this series would be that Harris puts in a reasonable-sized win and Trump... graciously concedes. I mean, he's being sentenced for election crimes about 2 weeks after the elect… (View Post)

OT thread on what it would take to make Polymarket missettle: https://old.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/1gi7z5s/market_risk_of_a_51_attack_on_polymarket/ (View Post)

tee hee https://bsky.app/profile/nameshiv.bsky.social/post/3l7ysmficom2q (View Post)

I wonder if the pollsters who are yet to release their final poll will suddenly start herding around Selzer instead of a tie... (View Post)