I think the other way for the polls to be wrong is with the standard shy Trump voters: Conservative voters who find Trump an embarrassment and don't want to encourage him, but they like tax cuts… (View Post)

They were pretty close in 2016. The national averages were out by like 1% or 2% or something. What was really wrong was the media narratives - basically the media only have two templates for election… (View Post)

So I cross-posted this comment from a guy called killerstorm back in March when we were trying to work out WTF was going on with the British response. Reading that New Statesman piece I think it fits… (View Post)

That headline isn't really a great summary of what the article says. What it's describing as "scientific caution" is skepticism about the idea that it was possible in practice to … (View Post)

Talking of attack ads, oof https://twitter.com/RVAT2020/status/1268999115595276289 (View Post)