You certainly want to give more weight to 2016 than 1880, but if you ignore everything except 2016 then your sample size is limited to 1, and it's very hard to make useful predictions from a sam… (View Post)

I'd say more: Not only is Trump's black support generally holding up pretty well, DC seems to be seeing quite a lot of gentrification, and I guess the votes of the incoming gentry are less … (View Post)

What do you think the job of a poll aggregation website is? Do you not think it might be a problem if they stop typing in the polls??? (View Post)

RCP has a grand total of one (1) poll listed for October, the famous Rasmussen (plus one other overlapping into last month). 538 lists seven (7) polls for that period, some of which are highly-repute… (View Post)

Write it up and send it to Mike! (View Post)