Those numbers are all *way* too high. The 2025 round will be much smaller than 2021, partly because 2021 had 2020 rolled into it because of Covid, and partly because of local govt structural reform p… (View Post)

Or we could just look at the polls that ask questions on Europe directly, rather than trying to interpret statistical entrails. (View Post)

They do have a ceiling. All parties do. But the likes of Trump, Orban, Erdogan and Le Pen all poll way beyond the 30% that might be enough to win in a FPTP system with 5-6 significant parties, unless… (View Post)

Le Pen is (joint) favourite to win in 2027, and unlike some times in the past, I don't think the odds are wrong. Indeed, I'd have her clear favourite (albeit not by much). It's not 2002 any more and … (View Post)

Emotions matter. Countries that lose wars - particularly those that started the war in question, unprovoked and for territorial gain - pay a price. That's always been the case historically and I see … (View Post)