Trajectories do not hold forever. We shouldn't confuse projection with predictions. After all, Labour was on a steadily leftwards trajectory from about 2005-19 - until it then wasn't. However, I do e… (View Post)

Correct. The positive campaign runs itself whoever the GOP opponent is anyway, so Biden may as well get on with it. In a choice between democracy and security, people invariably choose security - and… (View Post)

The 'Labour needs a 12.7% swing for a majority' thing is both analysis and the lead item the media took out of the study. And bollocks. (View Post)

It should be (r-s)+2(a-z) is greater than 54 to defeat the govt, where: r = rebels voting against s = opposition voting for a = govt MP abstentions z = opposition abstentions and half 54 is 27, not 2… (View Post)

Sunak can't create peers; that's the sole prerogative of HM (not HRH). And if he has any sense, he'll say the same as his gt-grandfather did in 1910: if you want the power to do that, it goes to the … (View Post)