I agree. But the question was what the minimum number of Tory losses is for them to be certainly unable to form a govt. Even though I agree that the chance of the DUP propping them up again is small,… (View Post)

Just on the timing, we're almost at the point where any election called now would be into the Scottish school holidays (an election called today would be held on June 20; the Scottish schools break u… (View Post)

50. The DUP *might* do another deal if there's enough cash on the table but I wouldn't assume it, by any means. I think they'd probably prefer to try their chances screwing Labour over instead (and w… (View Post)

On topic, I'd agree that 120 Tory MPs would be about the minimum if we were still dealing with the 1997 world of 3-party politics. But we're not. The pterodactyl in the ointment is Reform. Voting int… (View Post)

We look at the whole thing back-to-front, partly because the BBC refuses to take it seriously and partly because it still thinks that the formula from 1982 is the right one. In reality, it's an elect… (View Post)