Well, about one week to the postal votes. But yes, there is time - but is anything *really* likely to change? The Tory operation, from Sunak to ministers to the party chairman to the CCHQ media bods … (View Post)

On a related note, Paddy Power are quoting Reform to win zero seats at 4/1. Personally, I think there's some value in that. With Labour polling so high, it's quite possible that where Reform take a s… (View Post)

Good point. And that's one reason why most people didn't notice that the 1997 polls were wrong and overstated Labour. The interpretation of the polls pointed to a Labour landslide, and a landslide wa… (View Post)

On topic, pollsters like YouGov probably are overstating Labour's lead because of the overly-politically active nature of their panels. However, the results from Westminster by-elections and local el… (View Post)

Agreed. Though that just made the triumphalism on show at the rally all the worse. But it probably didn't swing many votes. If I had to nominate a 'biggest campaign error ever', it might be the 2017 … (View Post)