The bet is a compound one: it includes Trump repealing the 22nd Amendment. That is not going to happen. It excludes the possibility of Trump running 22nd Amendment notwithstanding. (View Post)

Big polling report on Israelis' views of the possibility of peace, what to do with Gaza, etc.: https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2025/06/pg_2025.06.03_israel_report.pdf (View Post)

What? Compared to Boeing??? (View Post)

I remain with the impression that you are quibbling details while overlooking the important flaws in your prior argument. Syria has been through a brutal and devastating civil war, which rightly attr… (View Post)

Those are widely reported figures. Wikipedia has citations. It's hard to be certain with any of these figures, but I think we can be confident that, in ballpark terms, the numbers killed in the … (View Post)