What happened in 2024 is voters went for anyone but the Conservatives, and generally they were reasonably good at working out who that was in their local patch. The same could occur at the next elect… (View Post)

Outside of election campaigns, very very very few things shift the polls other than random sampling error. If something has shifted the polls, however, it will be from a few to several days before th… (View Post)

The Dems lost mainly because inflation was high, which wasn't Biden's fault, but incumbents tend to lose when inflation is high. (View Post)

I took the maximum dose every day for 4 years after a car crash in North Carolina, and look at me now. Perfectly normal. Just posting to a political betting discussion forum late into the evening, li… (View Post)

The asylum backlog is decreasing (down 18% as of June), while deportations and voluntary removals are up. Would you like to give the government any credit for that? Arrivals, however, haven't shifted… (View Post)