Had Nick Buckley stayed in Reform and been their candidate, I think he’d do better than Goodwin. (View Post)

Thanks. So, just taking their raw numbers, n = 51 expressing a voting intention, assuming it's a proper random sample (which of course it isn't), you get: Conservative 8% (2%-17%) Labour 33… (View Post)

I gave the numbers at https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5439498/#Comment_5439498 If you have a random sample, then even a sample of 51 tells you something. (View Post)

143 replied. Only 51 said they were voting and said for what party. (View Post)

To be clear, "the guy" is Brett Ratner, the person pictured in the tweet, while the tweet is by Ruben Gallego, the junior senator from Arizona (D) and my long odds tip for 2028. (View Post)