we just don't know! the modelling is exquisitely sensitive to many parameters we just don't have. test... test... test... data... data... data. (View Post)

every toy model i've seen suggests the absolute best course is isolating the infected. virtual leper colonies. you can achieve this brutally or not. but that is the No. 1 successful strategy from all… (View Post)

bless the Swedes (and the Belarussians) for running the natural experiment. (View Post)

look out for the ONS weekly death statistics published tomorrow (and every Tuesday) at 10 AM. These are the only indubitable facts we have in this. death demography is hard (part of my job but i'm no… (View Post)