If this is the case, its just the logical outworking of the situation that had established itself some time ago. The Turks are the guarantor on the Bosphorus traffic so always had the ability to do t… (View Post)

Ukraine So Russia had a short tantrum over grain shipments. On Monday I posted that Russia couldnt directly take on a fuck off & carry on response and that someone should look closely at much ton… (View Post)

Ukraine: Two weeks ago I posted that the following fortnight would see some notable strategic developments, not all of them good news. My timing was out but the nature of some of these developments i… (View Post)

Ukraine. Situation is likely to change in next two weeks, strategically as much as on the battlefield. It is not all going to be good news. Meanwhile we are about halfway into the expected timespan f… (View Post)

I'm curious whether the markets will react to all this. That kind of shit starts again and it is over for Truss. (View Post)