I see that, despite all sorts of unpredictable local factors, Labour is still 1/7 on in Leicester East. That doesn't look particularly good value to me, at least in so far as there are other seats wh… (View Post)

No, the two constituencies are very different, the Muslim population doesn't dominate Yardley in the way it does Ladywood. I don't think there is any threat to Jess Phillips and I would take even mon… (View Post)

On thread. Apart from Bristol Central (as tipped by Pip) and Corbyn's seat (covered in the discussion below), the other Labour seat that I would pick as being really in the balance is Birmingham Lady… (View Post)

First it was Starmer needs a 12% swing, he's going to lose. Then it was level pegging is nothing during the midterm, Starmer is still going to lose. Then it was double figures are nothing, Labour nee… (View Post)

That's a fair point, and indeed YouGov have stated that the change in their methodology tends to reduce the Labour lead by about 3% (although it was 6% in the poll when they introduced the change) by… (View Post)