I have updated my England only seats model based on 2017 party vote splits for Leave and Remain to allow for more extensive Remain tactical voting than hitherto, based on the evidence from constituen… (View Post)

She's apparently unconcerned about the low pay that results from the unrestricted supply of labour in the care sector. (View Post)

The resort to having interviews in 2015 was a only fallback after Cameron refused to go head to head in a debate with Miliband. By contrast we are having just such a debate tonight. The outrage over … (View Post)

That will be devastating for the Conservatives' electoral chances in Northern Ireland. (View Post)

It wasn't so much Cameron's promise of a referendum that won it for the Conservatives. It was Ed Miliband's failure to match that promise which allowed it to become an issue dividing the parties. In … (View Post)