No. Based on the latest poll by each polling company, for those with fieldwork ending within the last week (n=3) the Tories are averaging 28%. For those with fieldwork ending within the last two week… (View Post)

The Conservatives start with a 12% share of the vote in Bristol West. If they were to lose 27% of their 53% vote share in the SW, their vote share in Bristol West is not going to fall by 27% in that … (View Post)

And also because it's a 40 point improvement on the 26 point Conservative lead in the week before Starmer took over. (View Post)

Since we're apparently 'aving a larf about R&W subsamples, here's the one for the South West in the same poll: Labour 53% Con 26% Lib Dem 12% Green 9% How many of their 48 South West seats would … (View Post)

That's a very creative way of describing 28%. (View Post)