The Conservatives start with a 12% share of the vote in Bristol West. If they were to lose 27% of their 53% vote share in the SW, their vote share in Bristol West is not going to fall by 27% in that … (View Post)

And also because it's a 40 point improvement on the 26 point Conservative lead in the week before Starmer took over. (View Post)

Since we're apparently 'aving a larf about R&W subsamples, here's the one for the South West in the same poll: Labour 53% Con 26% Lib Dem 12% Green 9% How many of their 48 South West seats would … (View Post)

That's a very creative way of describing 28%. (View Post)

On thread: In 2005 the opinion polls mostly underestimated the Tory vote relative to Labour In 2010 the opinion polls mostly overestimated the Tory vote relative to Labour In 2015 the opinion polls m… (View Post)