Even though the lead is unchanged at 9%, the doubling in the BXP vote share back to 4% in that YouGov poll in itself reduces the Tory majority by 20 on my model. My model on the YouGov 42/33/12/4/4 s… (View Post)

The contrast between Deltapoll and the LD Survation poll for Portsmouth S is really quite stark and the difference in dates surely can't account for that much of it. I think this reinforces the suspi… (View Post)

Anything but. If an 11% vote share lead can only generate a 68 seat majority, when 2 other of the most recent polls already have the lead down to 7%, then it suggests that the election is on a knife … (View Post)

There is indeed a bit of a difference between a gap of a few billion and one of a few hundred billion (at least). The uncosted WASPI women pledge alone must amount to 10 times the scale of any gap in… (View Post)

I blame, in roughly descending order of guilt: 1. Ed Miliband, for changing the system (as well as losing in 2015 in the first place and for pursuing timid policies in opposition which caused Labour … (View Post)