I disagree with the thread. Change just one word in the conclusion and you get this: "And if the 538 model is over-estimating the extremes, flattening the distribution so much, it must be under-… (View Post)

This is well worth a read. His comments on Trump are in my view absolutely spot on, although the overblown attempt to draw parallels with the UK risks undermining an otherwise sound argument. https:/… (View Post)

If even the Daily Express feels it necessary to report on Johnson's PMQ efforts in these damining terms, he really is in political trouble. https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1330470/pr… (View Post)

Trump has as much respect for democracy as a South American dictator. Yes there are constraints under the US constitution but that merely serves to limit what he can put into effect, not what wants t… (View Post)

Michigan (16seats), Wisconsin (10) and Pennysylvania (20) are not "must win" states when taken as a group. Biden has quite a few paths to winning if he doesn't win all 3. Biden needs 270 el… (View Post)