Where it can also be useful is in comparing the number the same party has up in one election with another. FWIW Labour has about the same number up here as in 2017 but fewer up than in 2015. However,… (View Post)

It will indeed be fascinating, but tonight's constituency polls leave you as much in the dark as before re the Red Wall. None are in seats where the Conservatives are looking to pick up seats fr… (View Post)

They changed to asking people about the candidates in their specific constituencies, which will have included named independents. There is a lot of randomness in the incidence and significance of ind… (View Post)

Yes, I thought Robinson did well. He pressed both of them to focus on specific points they would have preferred to avoid without stopping either of them getting across the points they wanted to. Prob… (View Post)

I have updated my England only seats model based on 2017 party vote splits for Leave and Remain to allow for more extensive Remain tactical voting than hitherto, based on the evidence from constituen… (View Post)