I did allow for that, I said above that each probability is in my view conditional on the preceeding one. We can disagree on whether the probabilities are correct. (View Post)

On 1, I'm aware of what the betting markets are saying about the likelihood of Starmer holding on this year, but like you I think they are wrong, just in the opposite direction. On 2, remember t… (View Post)

I posted the following four days ago and see no reason to change any of it. "[To become next PM] Burnham needs to: 1. Hope that none of his rivals triggers a contest in the wake of the locals OR… (View Post)

And me. This saga seems to be too much driven by his personal ego and ambition. Reality is that Burnham made a poor decision not to resign to seek nomination as a candidate in 2025 and is stuck with … (View Post)

Their calculation is that many Labour inclined voters will switch to Green in circumstances where Reform and the Conservatives are not seriously in the running. And that Reform and Conservative voter… (View Post)