538 had a pretty good 2016. Like other forecasters they gave appropriate weight to state polling which turned out to be systemically wrong in the mid-Western states considered to be Clinton's fi… (View Post)

Sunak is pitching his appeal to the 20% opposed to a circuit-breaker lockdown, not the 68% in favour. (View Post)

The West Midlands has also been in a different version of Tier 2 for almost a month. The difference for us is that from tomorrow people can't any longer mix indoors in hospitality venues, becaus… (View Post)

Agreed except that it's all his, not just as much his. (View Post)

The YouGov model is based on a popular vote lead for Biden of just 8.7%. Likewise 538's forecast is for a popular vote lead on election day of just 8.2%. Yet 538 currently have Biden 10.5% ahead… (View Post)