The resort to having interviews in 2015 was a only fallback after Cameron refused to go head to head in a debate with Miliband. By contrast we are having just such a debate tonight. The outrage over … (View Post)

That will be devastating for the Conservatives' electoral chances in Northern Ireland. (View Post)

It wasn't so much Cameron's promise of a referendum that won it for the Conservatives. It was Ed Miliband's failure to match that promise which allowed it to become an issue dividing t… (View Post)

Even though the lead is unchanged at 9%, the doubling in the BXP vote share back to 4% in that YouGov poll in itself reduces the Tory majority by 20 on my model. My model on the YouGov 42/33/12/4/4 s… (View Post)

The contrast between Deltapoll and the LD Survation poll for Portsmouth S is really quite stark and the difference in dates surely can't account for that much of it. I think this reinforces the … (View Post)