Yes. 538 have a nice model for that. If you take the basic model then hardwire in Biden taking Penn, Michigan and NE2 but not Wisconsin then Biden still has a 74% chance because he's got quite a few … (View Post)

A simpler explanation is that Trump is short of cash and can't afford to defend all of his 2016 gains. So he's having to go all in on one state with the little he has left. (View Post)

The whole mess is basically because the Treasury is trying to do the second round of lockdown in the cheap. The idea was to share responsibility for their penny pinching with local politicians who co… (View Post)

A photo taken somewhere in the East Midlands. That and the sentiment bears out exactly the comment that I posted here last night: "I don't think that Johnson has quite appreciated that this isn'… (View Post)

Actually, it hasn't been. Granted, he didn't stand out in the Blair/Brown/Miliband years and he made a hash of the 2015 leadership election which he should have won. However, he has certainly shone e… (View Post)