Indeed. Reasoning: A month ago 538 had Biden with a 69% chance. Now he's up to 80%, his highest yet (a +11% increase, compared to the +13% increase in Betfair over the period.) However, very few of t… (View Post)

It's a golfing term meaning avoiding taking on a very difficult shot in order to avoid the risk of a disasterous outcome that could destroy your round. i.e. instead of attempting to hit a 200 yard sh… (View Post)

Why not? Sampling took place on the day and the day after Sunak announced what initially was a reasonably well-received package of support for jobs extending beyond the end of October, before it had … (View Post)

On leader approval ratings, Starmer already has a 31% net lead over Johnson (+19% v -12%). 40% doesn't seem that far away at all. And as OGH has often claimed, dating back at least to the time when M… (View Post)

Approval/disapproval ratings of how Starmer is handling his job as Leader of the Labour Party. Overall: 40% approve, 21% disapprove. Net +19. 2019 Conservative voters:29% approve, 31% disapprove. Net… (View Post)