There are three sorts of polling companies in the US. Those associated with the Republicans, those associated with the Democrats, and the majority who fall into neither camp. The Republican pollsters… (View Post)

On that YouGov model, applying a uniform swing, Biden needs to win the popular vote by no more than 2.1% to win the electoral college (by gaining WI, MI and PE). YouGov have Biden 8.5% ahead in the p… (View Post)

Starmer ought to put out a virtually identical copy of that ad just with a Labour logo in the right hand bottom corner. The Brexit Party would sue, Labour would settle, there would be quite a bit of … (View Post)

This represents that actual polling gap on election day for the gazillions of votes already having been cast in swing states. Also, if either campaign had an October surprise card up their sleeve, th… (View Post)

Yes I agree. In fact, all he had to do was resign from the Shadow Cabinet over Harman's failure to vote against the welfare bill, and he would have been home. Instead he left a gap in the left field … (View Post)