TimT
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Re: Until the YouGov CON 13% lead is supported by other polling then it should be treated as an outlier
Indeed, if 1000 false positive school kids have to stay home until they get a series of negative results so that everyone else can go to school, is that not worth the price? Even if you multiply that… (View Post)1 -
Re: Until the YouGov CON 13% lead is supported by other polling then it should be treated as an outlier
Frankly, sometimes experts in very narrow fields can talk total nonsense, simply because it makes sense in their narrow view, but not in the big picture*. So, we are to let tens of millions needlessl… (View Post)2 -
Re: Until the YouGov CON 13% lead is supported by other polling then it should be treated as an outlier
And if 250,000 is our definition of a poor day now, is that not a reflection of just how well things have gone to date? Clearly this is a supply issue, which we were warned about and which we were to… (View Post)2 -
Re: Until the YouGov CON 13% lead is supported by other polling then it should be treated as an outlier
And depending on processing power, you can build in Monte Carlo simulations for all the key assumptions of the model (or even Game Theory for those parts of the model dealing with people's decis… (View Post)1 -
Re: Until the YouGov CON 13% lead is supported by other polling then it should be treated as an outlier
I'd just add that honesty might be valuable here. Explain your thinking about taking the position now, and about how you are not out to hoodwink the firm, but ideally think that this approach wi… (View Post)1