For the timing markets, beware the fact that it took 2 months between TMay announcing her intention to resign and BJ becoming leader/PM. (View Post)

In respect of (b), FPNs are not technically admissions of guilt of the offence. They should be distinguished from fines, which are. However they do sort of admit you did the thing, so a lot of weight… (View Post)

Wounded but not downed. Personally very frustrated that Boris now looks likely to battle on, causing untold damage to reputation of the party, a probable dreadful result in May, before finally succum… (View Post)

Should? Yes. Will? Nothing in the report to demonstrate that he will. (View Post)

The data's a year old. (View Post)