I think Biden will finish 4 points ahead. Enough that the Trump-leaning pollsters were wrong (so too were those on 10-12pt leads). I was expecting 5 to 6, which I think will also be too much, but not… (View Post)

Also my prediction! Though I'm not 100% sure about GA (or NV) (View Post)

Plenty of routes to the White house for Biden without Florida, very few without Pennsylvania. Although certainly possible if, contrary to polling, Biden outperforms Clinton among hispanics and underp… (View Post)

California sent a mail-in ballot to everyone in the state, which accounts for 12 million of that number. (View Post)

"This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone interviews Oct. 20-25, 2020" when the early voting was, er, much lower. (View Post)