So about 2/3 of Reform votes that did transfer, but about 1/3 of Reform votes in all. Which is kind of consistent with the model of Con-to-Ref movers. Some can, if push comes to shove, be attracted b… (View Post)

It's galling to those of us who enjoy thinking about it, and it must be infuriating to those who make a living from it, but most arguments make very little difference. If I were employing people… (View Post)

Meanwhile, at the other end of the scale: Only three of yesterday's byelection results have been reported overnight: Wyre, Marsh Mill: RUK gain from C Blackpool, Bispham: Lab gain from C Brackne… (View Post)

The other way of looking at it is that the Dems did about as well as it has been possible for an incumbent party to do anywhere in 2024, because voters worldwide are chronically irritated. It's … (View Post)

Even if that account is a parody, the tension in the Trump coalition is real. Christian conservatives and horny young men don't make comfortable bedfellows erm... allies. (View Post)