If you say standard MOE is +/- three percent and 1 in 20 polls are an outlier... A "true" lead of fifteen ought to give a lead of nine from time to time (3 off one, 3 on the other closes th… (View Post)
Possibilities. The "positive" poll is coming from Redfield and Wilton, the scamps. Being above twenty percent is seen as positive by the Conservatives. Guido was, however inadvertently, spr… (View Post)
Which some people were saying was always likely. If you go culture war, you legitimise the culture warriors which puts off the centrists. But it doesn't satisfy the warriors either. To quote the Dann… (View Post)
I think my take is that big swingback starts well before the campaign proper- a couple of years out. Baiscally, a well-organised government does the painful necessary stuff in years 1 and 2 with the … (View Post)