They didn't say that. They said 'On assumption X and assumption Y etc etc our model shows this result', and they emphasised the uncertainties in all those assumptions. We now know more… (View Post)

Yes, good point. Modelling, like guessing what a company's sales are going to be, is much easier with hindsight! (View Post)

The Speccie has been rather selective in its choice of data, and rather misleading in its presentation, meaning it can be safely filed under 'garbage'. For example, they somehow omitted to … (View Post)

I don't know if it's including in the modelling, but I expect it is, if only implicitly. In any case it's not enough to make a big difference: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1… (View Post)

I think you misinterpret what is happening in China. It's not about news in individual bits of it, it's about Xi Jinping's very hardline and arrogant approach to the world. He seems to… (View Post)