Yeah yeah, but coming back to the point, your analysis falls over at the very first hurdle: "Reagan built a new conservative coalition, which included two major centres : Wall St and the advocat… (View Post)

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324744444810301440 (View Post)

That's a tricky one. I wouldn't want to close the trade too early! (View Post)

On the betting, time for a critical appraisal of one's own performance and judgement. This was an unusually stable election in the sense that the polls (and odds) didn't fluctuate very much… (View Post)

So, it's looking like 306. Amongst the pundits, Larry Sabato and our own Jack_W did well, although both had NC in (probably) the wrong column: Sabato: 321 FL,TX,OH,IA,ME-02 lean Trump, GA,NC,PA,… (View Post)