Seasonality, even in known seasonal viruses, doesn't seem to be that well understood with several candidates for the way that seasonality actually works, some or all of which may be factors. The… (View Post)

It's more like, with 20% immune and all else being equal, you can keep R bobbing along around 1 with slightly less severe measures / behaviours (and as Selebian says, in Sweden we are talking ma… (View Post)

A few economists have studied previous pandemics and browsing those a truism emerges - it is not public health measures that damage the economy, it is the disease itself, because it is the disease th… (View Post)

The comparison with Italy article on the BBC website last night was good, and I think it is clear we may not currently have the worst death toll in Europe on a comparable basis. Indeed thinking like … (View Post)

I don't think n the government were 5-0 down at half time. The one thing they did an excellent job on was the staging and build up to lockdown over a period and the communication of that. It is … (View Post)