If their MRP says a Labour majority of 120 on a 13.5 point lead, a swing of 12.7% identical to that which the BBC says delivered a bare majority on UNC, then what kind of majority do YouGov think a 2… (View Post)

As a piece of interpretative art, Lee Anderson's embodiment of the Rwanda bill is almost perfect, shouty, needlessly unpleasant, impractical and ultimately pointless. If Lee Anderson had been co… (View Post)

On topic, a repost of the components of polling swing to Labour, derived from Dylan Difford's voter switching chart. I really ought to do a pie chart at some stage, I suppose. Every single compo… (View Post)

So, crunched Dylan Difford's vote switcher charts to get some numbers (no graphics) on how the polling swing to Labour is made up. His chart shows Labour 44.1, Con 25.0 predicted vote share, whi… (View Post)

Well, that's going to make it better for the Tories! Or bring young turnout to a more typical level. Looking again about 4.9m 2019 non-voters expressing a preference, which sounds high until you… (View Post)