The 4.5m single jabbed, of whom many will be recently jabbed 12-18s with good immune responses, are not vaccine naive either. Not sure how they are considered in the model, and might be a worthwhile … (View Post)

One note here. 50% faster spreading does not necessarily translate to 50% higher R(0) rate. The other variable in faster spreading is the generation time. For example, two variants with the same R ra… (View Post)

Omicron I can't believe it It's never been this far away from home. Sorry for the glibness, but nothing to do but wait now. (View Post)

Didn't AZ hit it's 2 billionth dose recently? If we need 3-4 jabs a pop it'll be over a good couple of years, and I somehow doubt third doses will be a major priority in younger develo… (View Post)

R at 1.03 for 20/11 vs 13/11. I think the progressive chill in the air will put another 0.05 on R, but there are straws in the wind the next few days will send R lower, so we may end up in the same p… (View Post)